Saturday, April 30, 2016
Race Preview II: Toronto Marathon ... Weather... UGH
I've been hoping this would change, forecasts are almost always wrong ... right?
Well, it hasn't.
I can live with +7C - that's actually a great running temperature. 5mm of rain, though? Not so great.
But worst of all is the 30km/h winds out of the east... gusting to 50km/h.
A headwind is never fun, but a headwind for the last 7km of a marathon is going to be hell.
Although the tailwind going west will be interesting... we'll actually have a tailwind longer than a headwind! Between the downhill and the tailwind, I am thinking "banking time" might not be the horrible idea it normally is... an even effort throughout the race would have a pretty serious positive split right up to 35km of this one.
My revised plan. Am I overthinking this? YES. Yes I am.
5:10/km to start (and on any even ground without wind!)
4:50-5:00/km on downhills (13-19km)
5:05/km or so with tailwind (21km-34km)
5:30/km into the headwind at the end (35km-42.2km)
Based on my calculation... that's a 3:38:03 and a PB! Yay!
We'll see, though... putting things on paper is always easier than executing them on race day!