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Saturday, April 30, 2016

Race Preview II: Toronto Marathon ... Weather... UGH

I've been hoping this would change, forecasts are almost always wrong ... right?

Well, it hasn't.

I can live with +7C - that's actually a great running temperature.  5mm of rain, though?  Not so great.

But worst of all is the 30km/h winds out of the east... gusting to 50km/h.

A headwind is never fun, but a headwind for the last 7km of a marathon is going to be hell.

Although the tailwind going west will be interesting... we'll actually have a tailwind longer than a headwind!  Between the downhill and the tailwind, I am thinking "banking time" might not be the horrible idea it normally is... an even effort throughout the race would have a pretty serious positive split right up to 35km of this one.

My revised plan.  Am I overthinking this?  YES.  Yes I am.

5:10/km to start (and on any even ground without wind!)
4:50-5:00/km on downhills (13-19km)
5:05/km or so with tailwind (21km-34km)
5:30/km into the headwind at the end (35km-42.2km)

Based on my calculation... that's a 3:38:03 and a PB!  Yay!

We'll see, though... putting things on paper is always easier than executing them on race day!


Dave B said...

Great plan. My PB is here 2014 and there was brutal west wind. You are right, tomorrow's east wind is better. It sounds ridiculous but that year I was forming drafting groups. I would pull in behind runners just ahead and tell them I was tailgating and we'd swap spots. Had a few groups up to 5 or 6 of us. All got the idea, they were struggling too.

Pace sounds right. You'll get 2 minutes versus flat in first half if 1 second per m of elevation drop. Then who knows with more tail than headwind?

But same here - I am pacing toward 3:26:00 early to get 3:29:00.

But unless you've bonked, you can stay ahead of long run pace 36-42K you know PB is at stake.

jonovision_man said...

Sure hope so! Good luck tomorrow, I'll keep an eye out for ya. Oh and my toe is better, I'll be there.