Seven weeks to go
I'm an analyst by nature. I analyze.
I don't trust my gut or emotions, I trust numbers and facts.
So here it goes: analysis of my Ironman readiness, by the numbers.
How far they are making me go: 3800m
How long they give me to do it: 2h20
The Pace: 3:38/100m
I have done 2000m a bunch of times now, including twice in a lake in a wetsuit. In my most recent race, I finished in 47:46, and that included a fairly long run to transition. That works out to 2:24/100m.
Fast? No. But quite a bit faster than I need to be on race day.
The last tri I did had a mass start. Around 500 people, it was a bit hectic. My strategy was to be nearer the back and to the outside - this worked well for me. I will do the same at Ironman Canada.
Strategy for the last few weeks: get out open water swimming at least 2-3 more times.
It's my weakness, no question, and I will absolutely be one of the weaker swimmers out there. But I feel I've done all I can to be ready, that cut-off time seems entirely reasonable.
How far they are making me go: 180 km
How long they give me to do it: 8h00 (or more if swim is OK)
The Pace: 22.5 km/h
I haven't gone that slow in many years... I don't go that slow on my mountain bike, on gravel and mud roads when the snow is still on the ground.
Confident? I'm downright cocky!
My pace in the 1/2 Iron Swim/Bike race I did last weekend was almost 31 km/h. I did a century ride (160km) in early June that went really well (my third time doing that distance) and have done a bunch of 100km rides as well.
Biking is my strength, and I feel great these days. I can't see anything outside of a mechanical problem standing between me at the cut-off time.
The bigger challenge will be holding back enough to run a marathon... I need to spend the vast majority of the 180k ride feeling comfortable.
How far they are making me go: 42.2k (full marathon)
How long they give me to do it: 6h30 (likely much more)
The Pace: 9:00/km
Based on my actual goals, I should start the run with 8 hours in my pocket, not 6, but let's assume the worst.
Today I did a test: how fast can I walk a kilometer? I wanted to know if the worst case happened, could I get to the finish in time.
The answer: YES. I walked a kilometer at 8:20/km pace. I was walking pretty briskly, but if I can't even walk fast then I don't deserve to be called an Ironman!
Am I Ready?
I know it will be hard. I know things beyond my control can turn my months of preparation into a DNF in a hurry - a lot of people who start don't finish, and I'm sure many of them were prepared.
But I am confident I can do this, and can't wait to tri.